CommBank Agri Podcast

Where to now for prices?

CBOT Wheat prices were up a mind boggling 7.3% on the week to 670USc/bu. Since the lows of April 19th, CBOT Wheat and EU MATIF Wheat have increased by 26%. A massive short covering by funds has intensified a rally fuelled by Russian advances in Ukraine and weather challenges around the world. The question is where to now? While we forecasted the price direction correctly on the 15th of April, the rapid CBOT Wheat price rise has exceeded our 12-month forecast range…in 1 month. We believe the magnitude of the rise will be dependent on how much lower the Russian crop falls and how much headway Russia makes in Ukraine. If both factors plateau, the price rise should slow, and be limited by northern hemisphere harvest AND the fact that short positions by funds would be already liquidated.
 
Disclaimer:
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
 

Too Fast & Furious

Global Wheat are up 13% since the lows of April 18 when the price rally began. Wheat prices were pushed higher by concerns of a drying Russian winter wheat crop and declining stock levels more broadly across the Black Sea and Danube countries. Australian Track APW1 wheat prices increased 1.8%/wk on average across port zones.
While we forecasted a wheat price rise globally and locally, the speed and magnitude of the rise has come about faster and more furiously than expected.
 
Disclaimer:
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
 

Why have prices rallied higher?

CBOT wheat increased 9.6% over the past week and closed at 603USc/bu, while European MATIF wheat increased 11.1%/wk. Escalating middle east conflict, Russia making up ground in Ukraine, and several key producing and exporting countries experiencing drying conditions were behind the rise. Locally, national average APW1 Track/FIS prices increased 3%/wk, while feed barley increased 1%/wk. Unless there is a sudden price decline overseas, we expect local prices to follow global higher. WA and SA remain very dry, with no rainfall over the past week. While dry sowing is going ahead, only a proportion of the full planting program will be completed without further rains. Considerable hectare drop off could be seen.
 
Disclaimer:
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
 

Missiles, dryness and leafhoppers

Global wheat prices strengthened over the past week. The rise was prompted largely by Israel’s retaliatory strikes on Iran. Other supportive news included reductions in Argentina’s corn crop, Black Sea dryness and low government stocks in India. Global canola markets dipped on favourable US and Canadian weather, weak Chinese March soybean import figures and increased availability of palm oil eased prices lower.
 
Disclaimer:
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
 

Canola market outlook still golden

The outlook for canola markets still remains positive locally and globally for the end of year. Have a listen of the 3rd podcast for the week, We delve into global canola stocks, drought in Canada, an overly wet Europe and rising demand by year end and into 2025.
 
 
Disclaimer:
 Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
 

Cure for low prices is low prices

Is the cure for low prices, low prices? Planting of grain crops is starting to decline overseas, in part due to prices squeezing farm margins. Could this be the very early stages of a new global price cycle heading into mid-2025? Dennis Voznesenski, agri and sustainability economist and John Oh, sustainability economist, delve into the details.
 
Disclaimer:
 Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
 

Australian Crop Outlook 2024/25

It’s a story of three parts. The east coast has plentiful soil moisture, SA has plentiful sub soil moisture but limited top soil moisture, while WA is dry all the way through and waiting for a seasonal break by mid-May. On the whole, Australian winter cropping area is expected to rise 2% on last year, BUT, if WA stays dry, it could cause national are to sink into the negative. Join CBA’s agri and sustainability economist Dennis Voznesenski and Sustainability economist John Oh as they delve into the numbers.
 
Disclaimer:
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
 

Droughts & war push prices higher

Global and local grain prices rallied over the last week. A rise in attacks on Ukraine’s port infrastructure grabbed the headlines, while Canada's dry conditions bubbled away in the background. Bearish factors are still prevalent as northern hemisphere harvest nears and demand splutters. Local APW1 and feed barley FIS/Track prices followed global higher, both increasing 1%-1.5% on the week. Global canola prices also rallied over the past week. Continued dry conditions in Canada, rising palm oil prices, uncertainty over Brazil’s soybean crop size and conflict boosting oil prices have been behind the rise. Local FIS/Track non-GM and GM canola prices rose 1% and 1.2% respectively for the week. For any questions, please reach out to dennis.voznesenski@cba.com.au
 
Disclaimer:
 Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
 

Have low prices hit farmer limits

Global grain prices have come down considerably over the past 2 years, pressuring farmer margins. The USDA’s just released prospective planting report forecast total US principal crop area to decline in 2024. Industry estimates for Brazil’s second corn crop planting are also showing declines. Have prices come down to a point where farmers start planting less? Join CBA’s Agri and Sustainability Economist Dennis Voznesenski and Sustainability economist John Oh as they discuss the latest in grains.
 
Disclaimer:
 
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
 

Bullish short term, bearish long term

Ukraine and Russia exchanged attacks on critical infrastructure over the past week. Russia has been targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure while Ukraine have been targeting Russian oil refineries and naval facilities in Crimea. No significant grain related infrastructure attacks have been reported so far in retaliation. However, Ukraine’s successful attack on 2 large vessels in Crimea and the recent ISIS terrorist attack over in Russia may result in an increased need to show an act of force by Russia. Increased uncertainty over the future of export flows should be supportive of short term grain prices, however, rising Russian grain production estimates are limiting longer term upside potential.
 
 
Disclaimer:
 
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.